1. Gasoline and diesel consumption growth reversed
In 2017, China's refined oil consumption resumed growth, with an annual consumption of 322 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%, an increase of 3 percentage points compared with 2016, but the growth rate showed a rare drop in gasoline and a rise in firewood. Among them, the consumption of gasoline was 122 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.03%, falling to the lowest point since 2006, while the consumption of diesel oil was 167 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.24%, increasing by 6 percentage points year-on-year.
Domestic refined oil consumption (10000 tons)
Data source: public data collation
Related report: report on in-depth investigation and investment prospect forecast of China's refined oil industry in 2018-2024
Domestic gasoline and diesel kerosene consumption (10000 tons)
Data source: public data collation
The significant decline in the growth rate of passenger car sales is the main reason for the slowdown of gasoline consumption. Gasoline consumption is mainly affected by the size and structure of the passenger car market. In 2017, the situation of passenger car market weakened sharply. The total sales volume of gasoline vehicles was 23.93 million, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.64%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.7 percentage points compared with that in 2016.
New energy vehicles continue to develop at a high speed, inhibiting the growth of gasoline demand. In 2017, the cumulative sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles was 768000, with a year-on-year increase of 53.0%; the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 1.22 million, with a year-on-year growth of 70.2%. In September 2017, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other five ministries and commissions issued the measures for parallel management of average fuel consumption of passenger vehicle enterprises and new energy vehicle points, which will limit the excessive production of traditional fuel vehicles by large-scale automobile enterprises and encourage the accelerated popularization of new energy vehicles.
Domestic sales of passenger cars (gasoline) (10000 units)
Data source: public data collation
Domestic sales of new energy vehicles (10000 vehicles)
Data source: public data collation
The overload control of transport vehicles significantly improves diesel consumption. In 2017, the state strictly implemented the relevant laws and regulations governing overloaded vehicles, which led to the rapid growth of diesel vehicle sales: the total sales volume of diesel vehicles in the whole year was 3.18 million, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, a significant increase of 6.9 percentage points compared with 2016.
The growth rate of highway freight transportation has picked up, supporting diesel consumption. In 2017, due to the overall improvement of the economy, the growth rate of electricity consumption and real estate investment in the whole society rebounded significantly, boosting the transportation of coal, steel and other bulk commodities: the annual turnover of highway goods was 6.67 trillion ton km, with a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and the growth rate rose by 3.8% compared with the same period in 2016, thus boosting the diesel consumption in the transportation industry.
Domestic diesel vehicle sales (10000 units)
Data source: public data collation
Domestic highway freight transportation turnover (trillion ton km)
Data source: public data collation
2. The output of oil products continues to increase, and supply and demand are relatively loose
In 2017, due to the increase of domestic crude oil processing, the output of refined oil increased accordingly: the domestic output of refined oil was 358 million tons, an increase of 2.85% over the same period of last year, which was lower than the growth rate of 3.15% last year. At the same time, due to the tightening of export quota, the domestic net export in 2017 was 36.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and the growth rate showed a cliff like decline. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of diesel oil and diesel oil are more relaxed than those of domestic gasoline and oil.
Domestic refined oil supply and demand pattern
Data source: public data collation
Net export of domestic refined oil (10000 tons)
Data source: public data collation
Domestic gasoline and diesel kerosene production (10000 tons)
Data source: public data collation
Net export of domestic gasoline, diesel and kerosene (10000 tons)